A Hybrid World
In the real world zero sum rarely exists in practice but is carried through in ideologies that in many cases prevent any actual progress. We have all heard the saying of two steps forward and one step back is still progress but sometimes taking too many steps forward too fast can have unintended consequences that don’t allow for those few steps back once everything is broken. Currently, the world is seeing this fast push forward through a one size fits all approach to transportation and energy that ignore current solutions that create a quality mix of new and existing technologies that would allow for a hybrid approach. 300 years ago the first steam engine was introduced to the world by Thomas Newcomen and slightly less than 100 years ago the ultimate steam engine was introduced in the form of nuclear power. From half a percent energy efficiency from that first steam engine to the average nuclear power plant producing 1 gigawatt of energy today, modern society has added copious amounts of energy that are often taken for granted.
The Grid
Energy can be seen as the ultimate currency at the center of every process and product that makes modern society possible. The world went through an industrial revolution of smoke filled cities burning anything and everything available to produce energy to a cleaner approach of fossil fuels, hydro, nuclear and renewables and now back again to burning large masses of trash and biofuels in emergencies. The US nuclear electricity generation capacity peaked in 2012 at about 102,000 MW while supplying roughly a fifth of the US power since 1990.
Removing biomass from the renewables mix, objectively, probably shouldn’t have ever been included, leaves nuclear more than double the energy production of renewables in the US. Yet projects like solar and wind are incentivized heavily while failing at the most critical times.
Electrification rightfully is seen as a modern marvel of innovation that requires a heavy mix of base load inputs from coal, fossil fuels, and nuclear to produce reliable and consistent energy outputs for the grid. Renewables inherently are intermittent power sources since the wind and sun are not always available as inputs for production but are still an important part of our energy mix. As the world becomes more energy intensive, a hybrid approach to the grid will ultimately be required to continue growth. Estimated U.S. energy consumption for 2021 came in at a total of 97.3 Quads but the more interesting metric is two thirds of power generated is lost energy rejected through thermodynamic heat loss in transmission lines and sub generation stations. With solar and wind making up only 4.83 Quads of energy input, roughly 50 times of renewables will need to be added to the grid to power the electric vehicle revolution and offset the fossil fuel density of power currently being used.
Many emerging markets, such as India are looking to bring billions of people out of energy poverty and give access to a more industrialized society and cost will be an important factor. India consumes 6.9K kWh per capita while the US averages 76K kWh per capita or 10 times as much. ‘Climate justice’ is a concept that addresses the just division, fair sharing, and equitable distribution of the burdens of climate change and its mitigation and responsibilities to deal with climate change but a sustainable lifestyle, equity, and access are existential to markets looking to bring their people out of energy poverty. The idea presented to many of these emerging markets is to leapfrog the use of cheap baseload energy sources such as Liquified Natural Gas and move straight to renewables while those already enjoying the luxury of energy security still rely heavily on dirtier options such as biofuels.
In an ideal world, the technology of renewables can keep up with demand but classification of certain technologies outside of the renewable scope such as nuclear make it difficult to achieve these goals. In February 2022, President Emmanuel Macron of France announced plans to build six new reactors, and to consider building a further eight, while the last nuclear power plant in Germany planned to cease operation in December 2022. From a share of 22.2% electricity generation in 2010, the contribution of nuclear decreased to 11% in 2020 in Germany and now are relying on even coal. Nuclear can’t be the only option however, France has been in desperate need of electric imports as nuclear output has slumped to the lowest in more than three decades as Electricite de France SA had to keep many of its reactors offline for repairs. Which brings us back to the need for a hybrid approach to insure reliability and access.
Not only do emerging markets have a disconnect for the have’s and have not’s of the world; the same systematic plague of effects on the poorer population can be seen with the recent rise in costs to heat and cool the average American’s home in certain areas. When severe weather events occur sustainability should the the number one priority in order to prevent loss of life but with the mix of renewables and red tape has led to the cost of keeping these necessities running expensive. For example, New England was hit hard recently by life threatening cold weather that pushed prices to extreme levels while California has been battling droughts pushing for use of emergency coal and gas power production at a much higher cost than the typical hydro sources.
Trains, Plains, and Automobiles
Sometimes it seemingly feels as if some of the announced innovations coming to market are promises wrapped in a pretty bow with little proven technology behind them. Recent news hit the tape that Tesla would take their electric motor technology to other ventures such as planes, boats, and toys but was later debunked as a fan of the company filing a trademark on the companies behalf without their knowledge. A flash in the pan of news that got a few fans excited about the prospects after a rough 2022 left the stock down more than 70% from its all time highs that fizzled out quickly. A company that has made many promises from the long overdue Cybertruck, Roadster, and semi to the 4680 battery cells and solar rollouts; it would be ideal for them to actually deliver on a few product lines before expanding into other sectors, especially with their lackluster spend on research and development. Yet, that is exactly what is praised in the green energy space and the electrification of vehicles is no different. Take for example, the recent uproar of protest over the new guidelines for tax credits applied to electrified vehicles that excludes some Tesla models due to cost thresholds and classification.
Ignoring the fact that a single generation of wind, solar, and full electric vehicles will increase the cost of raw materials for copper, nickel, lithium, aluminum, ect. that price the majority of the world out of these technologies; it is beyond comprehension why so many lash out at hybrid approaches to the problem. Recent Twitter storms complaining about the IRS tax credits towards certain vehicles include targeting vehicles such as the Jeep 4Xe line that is capable of 21 miles on a single charge.
2022 averages for miles driven comes in at 13,476/year or 36.9 miles a day where the average driver under the age of 20 drives less than 7,624 miles/year. That means the average driver would be traveling on electric more than 50% of the time on these hybrid options and 100% of the time according to the averages if under the age of 20. While the Jeep has only a 49mpg vs the 113mpg Tesla it also has a real range of 370 miles vs the real range of the Tesla under 300 miles. More importantly is the ease of replacing the battery of the jeep vs the structural pack of the Tesla offered in the comparison and the cost difference of the average hybrid battery of $2,000 to $8,000 vs the Tesla $15,000 to $20,000 replacement.
Innovation has a tendency to come in spurts instead of a linear pattern leaving room for breakthroughs in battery technology to still happen. However the current weight of a battery over its capacity seems fairly far fetched for aviation but that doesn’t leave out other alternative forms of transportation such as rail and seaborn. The same problem of having enough available cells to supply into every sector is a challenge in physics that just cannot be met. A problem that would ultimately result in the reversal of many policies and international planning including waste of aging products and infrastructure that can only partially be recycled.
Weight will be a problem with the wear and tear of roads where the average electric vehicle in the same class weights a few hundred pounds more than its counterpart internal combustion engine variant. While vehicles like the new Hummer EV come in at 9,063 lbs or 3,000 heavier than the standard Ford Lightning while losing out on the unity the Ford carries as a work truck. The added weight also increases the potential for more fatalities due to wrecks of larger mass of vehicles, another law of physics that can never be fully offset by other innovations. Weight becomes a whole other problem once entering the heavier classification of vehicles that will need to be addressed by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration if these vehicles become more common. With the current testing by Pepsi Co. and Tesla on their very late to production semi already needing a tow, maybe the reversal towards replacing all diesel powered heavy duty transportation will be dead on arrival.
Final Thoughts
This leaves a lot of open ended questions such as the true cost to keep up with rising demand based on population growth, required battery footprint for reliable baseload renewables, and the willingness of the consumer to continue to pay higher energy prices. Transitions usually come in layers where the last generation of technology is built upon and enhanced to better suit the next level of innovation. Layering through the hybrid model in transpiration and energy production makes sense when considering that in the history of the world humankind has not decreased its reliance on a single energy source over time and has only added new sources to meet an ever-growing demand.
Great read.