Permian Basin Royalty Trust(PBT) data dump

Since my original post on Permian Basin Royalty Trust(PBT) I have gotten a large number of private messages through twitter and discord asking for more information about the Blackbeard drilling activity. In order to save me some time and clear a few things up I wanted to share some projections and data.

Focusing on Waddell Ranch production using test data from new wells and adding a discount to those wells we can see below the projected ‘Realized Gross Barrels Oil’ from the trust production since Blackbeard began expanding drilling in 2020.

This data is based on all permits with test data but there are currently 48 permits without data of the 165 from the Railroad commission. 129 permits show completion data and 35 permits do not have a current spud date(start of drilling). The oil production from Waddell shows a potential ‘Realized Gross barrels Oil’ of 388k off completed wells from the new permits. The same information is calculated from the natural gas potential seen below at an additional 902k mcfu of ‘Realized Gross Gas’.

New well completion had a slight lag last year due to a shortage of surface equipment in the Permian Basin. Below you can see the amount of days from spud date to completion date for the wells by month and year. Same data is represented above charts with the same coordinated color and labeled ‘Days to Complete’. This is important information to note since there are currently 36 open permits with no spud dates.

When calculating the data I am using the test well data and a 15% decline. Yearly decline rate thereafter for PBT past performance of wells is about 6% and this was validated by ConocoPhillips in their deck for sell of the trust to Blackbeard.

From that same deck some information about the surrounding fields were also provided. I utilize the geo location, depth, and field names to help me determine if the 24hr tests are in line for the targeted geology and structure of the well. I cant share this raw data and explain it easily but its represented in this excel as column ‘Avg Oil per Month’.

More info about the targeted fields can be found here but I also wanted to attach relative information before for quick reference below.

Below is some material from XTO Energy which explored these same fields and the current CEO of Blackbeard worked as an engineer during the time of these developments.

The raw output of Permits with estimates can be found here. If you have any questions leave a comment and I will expand as much as I can.